Orbital Edge Nov 2025

Space Systems, Infrastructure & the Emerging Orbital Economy

This is part 3 of 4 in the experiment to scan a selection of broad, globally influential, foresight domains and see what surprises result.

This month's report tackles the issue of emerging space and orbital economies. Download this one for free here.

We're running this experiment to test the viability of a foresight-as-a-service program, launching in 2026. There is a 2-part mission:

• Bring academically trained foresight to organizations who are not set-up to employ a full-time foresighter but want to keep up with emerging signals of change. To democratize foresight.

  
  

• See how far we can push to the fringe. We are pushing toward a destination that sits in liminal space, embraces the strange, isn't corporate safe. We'll let you know when we get there, but it's been positive so far.

Contents this month:

• 36 page report

• Domain file

• Executive Summary

• 5 Meta Trends

• 27 Signals of Change

• 8 Macro-Environmental Implications

• 7 Cross-Domain Impacts

• Wildcards, Watchlist, Recommendations, and a few extras.

  
  

Executive Summary - Orbital Edge Nov 2025

Across the past four weeks, Orbital Edge has crystallized into a contested, high-stakes frontier where commercial growth, geopolitical maneuvering, and fringe experimentation collide. What was once framed as “exploration” is now a full-spectrum infrastructure race. Mega-constellations are no longer speculative— they are the nervous system of globalization. Their rapid scaling is exposing externalities: debris risks, collision cascades, ozone chemistry impacts, and cybersecurity vulnerabilities. The tempo of change is accelerating, and the system is now tightly coupled to Earth’s economies, militaries, and governance logics.

The dominant storyline is the militarization of ambiguity. From anti satellite posturing to dual-use debris-removal tech, the inability to cleanly separate accident from attack makes space uniquely destabilizing. Ambiguity itself becomes a weapon, amplifying geopolitical tension and financial risk. Parallel to this is a governance scramble: voluntary industry charters, draft treaties, and jurisdictional arbitrage are all vying to set de facto standards. Governance is fragmenting into overlapping layers, with commercial coalitions quietly hardening norms that may outpace state diplomacy.

Simultaneously, commercial normalization is occurring at speed. Internet exchanges, semiconductor supply chains, and insurance markets are embedding orbital assets into terrestrial infrastructures. Satellites are becoming municipal utilities, invisible but indispensable to cities, logistics, and carbon accounting. This normalization extends vulnerabilities: orbital cyberattacks, insurance defaults, and cascading failures could paralyze terrestrial systems in ways most leaders have not gamed out.

Fringe signals are threading through this maturation story. Synthetic biology, microgravity reproduction, algae-based bioplastics, and orbital datacenters are moving from fringe research into policy discourse. These weak signals serve as narrative drivers— policy actors are already making assumptions and investments based on their imagined futures. The threshold-crossing moment is not just technical—it’s discursive. Speculative futures are shaping real budgets and treaties before feasibility is proven, revealing the power of mythmaking in space strategy.

The Orbital Edge is therefore at a civilizational inflection: operationalized militarization, fragile governance, commercial integration, and myth-driven fringe pathways. Stability is fragile; opportunities are immense; the shadow layer is thick with taboo possibilities—sabotage, jurisdictional collapse, biosafety blind spots, and narrative warfare over what “space” even means.